November 2025 Newsletter

Dear Neighbor:

As I have been saying in my last few letters, after a few turbulent years, the real estate market is settling back to some form of normalcy (thank you Warren Harding).  Interest rates are down to just north of 6% for a 30-year fixed rate, and even better for a shorter fixed rate term.  This, and the number of homeowners reluctant to give up their 2.9% refinance obtained a few years ago, has resulted in the number of single family homes on the Peninsula remaining unchanged from a year ago at about 145 . . . which is still low by historic standards.  All of this has tended to support prices.  Average time on the market is statistically 103 days tho that number is squishy, as it depends on agent reporting habits and MLS rules.  If you have questions about it, call me. 

Overall prices have been on a very slight downward trend – so slight that you can’t prove it with statistics.  The problem with statistics is that they are subject to distortion due to a) every house being different, b) dollars-per-square-foot being notoriously inaccurate for reasons I’ve discussed before, and c) depending on the length of time or size of the area in the sample, too few transactions to counter-act one anomaly.

One of the most common beliefs in real estate (apart from the notion that a room has to have a closet to be called a bedroom, which it doesn’t) is that Fall is a bad time to sell, while Springtime is the best.  Here’s the deal: those promoting Spring as the best time are generally reacting to the statistics which show (correctly) that the most sales happen in the Spring, ergo (hey, I’m trying to get some benefit out of years of college Latin) that’s the time to sell.  But think of it from the point of view of you, the seller: there are lots of houses on the market in the Spring.  Would you rather sell at a time when the market is flooded with houses competing with yours, or when there are few houses on the market, and plenty of buyers competing for them?  All else being equal, for you the seller, clearly the latter is a better environment.  And buyers shopping during the holidays generally have a reason and are more motivated.  But many sellers simply don’t want to deal with their house being on the market as the holidays approach and that, combined with the myth that it’s a bad time to sell, creates a sort of self-fulfilling result; ie, more houses for sale (and more buyers looking) equals more sales, while fewer of each equals fewer sales.  You the seller don’t (or shouldn’t) care about how many other houses are selling; you care about your house, and selling at a time when there aren’t 18 similar houses for buyers to choose from will, all else being equal, yield a better result.  I understand that there are many factors that influence your timing, but this should be one of them.

Give me a call if you’d like to discuss anything from real estate to Renaissance polyphony to military history – 310 613-1076 or email at [email protected].  My website (DanaGraham.com) is currently experiencing a technical glitch which will hopefully be solved by the time you get this.

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